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#277 Jun 16 2013 at 1:16 AM Rating: Good
Jophiel wrote:
Olorinus the Ludicrous wrote:
People expect a certain kind of game to have sky high fidelity etc - but if you make a fun game people will buy it regardless of the fidelity - look at minecraft.

Minecraft was a classic case of lightning in a bottle. You can't really use it as a model any more than WoW makes a good example for other MMORPGs. For every Minecraft there are literally hundreds of indie games that people may describe as "fun" but which don't sell a fraction as many copies.

Here's a list of the best selling PC games. Most of the those titles, especially the top half ones, are major release games backed by major publishers. Even stuff that looks dated now (Sims 2) was done well for the time and tech when it came out. What's not on there is much representation from the "low graphics but fun!" indie crowd. Minecraft... Terraria is down the list... Binding of Issac and Runaway: A Road Adventure at 1 million each (and BoI was in a Humble Bundle). Witcher series but those put the time into graphics. I'm probably missing some but the whole idea that games compete purely on the basis of "It's fun" just isn't accurate. Technology, publishing and marketing all play a sizable role.

Plus, Minecraft has sold ~20 million copies across all platforms (PC, Xbox, Linux, Android, iOS, etc) since its launch in March 2011 (according to Wiki, ~4 mil from that number was actually sold between 2009-2011). COD: Black Ops 2 sold ~10 million copies in its first two weeks. COD:BO2 shouldn't be our gauge either but, if you're shooting for the moon, you want COD numbers not Minecraft numbers.

[Edit: I see KTurner beat me on the COD comparison while I was off looking at numbers]


Edited, Jun 14th 2013 2:36pm by Jophiel

Sorry I am a page late on this.

The problem is the games aren't budgeted right. There's a game on that list, 12th one, that's going to be TWENTY years old come this september. I think without even looking at actual statistic we can all agree that the amount of people that play video games has increased drastically since 1993. How is it then a twenty year old game can out perform modern ones in a larger market? I am not saying that if this game released today it would do nearly as well if it was sold as is. However that;s a staggeringly old game to be sitting in the top 15 for a market that's damn near to catching up to other major mediums.

Tomb raider had to sell at least I believe it was 8 million copies for it's publisher to consider it a "Success." 8 million copies. Not even the top selling pc games ~OF ALL TIME~ clear 3 million before the top 30 games. Yet tomb raider was expected to sell 8 million copies.

Quickly checking the wiki page for all game platforms, most system top sellers drop below 2 million copies sold withen the first 10-15 titles. Yet games are being budgeted expecting to sell at least 8 million copies. Or 6 million? Or whatever other arbitrary number publishers pull out of their ***.

At the end of the day budget are not being realistically made. Weather that's the sake for graphics, extra modes, extra games, more WHATEVER. The numbers games are getting budgeted for are not right if the publisher needs 8 million copies to sell for it to be a success.

Shoot for the moon for sure, but for sake of everyone involved don't expect to actually make it.
#278 Jun 16 2013 at 7:29 AM Rating: Excellent
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Laxedrane the Irrelevant wrote:
The problem is the games aren't budgeted right. There's a game on that list, 12th one, that's going to be TWENTY years old come this september. I think without even looking at actual statistic we can all agree that the amount of people that play video games has increased drastically since 1993. How is it then a twenty year old game can out perform modern ones in a larger market? I am not saying that if this game released today it would do nearly as well if it was sold as is. However that;s a staggeringly old game to be sitting in the top 15 for a market that's damn near to catching up to other major mediums.

I don't get why this is a problem. Myst was a wildly successful game. It presented a new experience for people graphically and with game play (non-combat 1st person exploration). It came out at a time where the potential audience may have been smaller but the game market itself was also much less crowded. You may as well complain that Gone With The Wind still tops ticket sales/inflation adj. box office records. That came out around 74 years ago.

Quote:
Tomb raider had to sell at least I believe it was 8 million copies for it's publisher to consider it a "Success." 8 million copies. Not even the top selling pc games ~OF ALL TIME~ clear 3 million before the top 30 games. Yet tomb raider was expected to sell 8 million copies.

The original Tomb Raider sold over 5.5 million copies between PC and PSX. Tomb Raider II sold over 7.5 million copies on those same two platforms. I know everyone uses Tomb Raider (2013) as an example of how unrealistic publishers are about sales -- likely because not many people say how many copies they wanted to sell of a game -- but hoping for a big reboot of a very popular franchise to sell 8 million copies across three platforms doesn't seem terribly insane. It proved to be excessively optimistic but I don't think it was pulled from a fishbowl. Tomb Raider 2013 has sold over 3.4 million copies (I assume closer to 4+ since the article) which is a sizable jump over the franchise's usual fall-off per new title.

My reason for posting the PC list earlier was because of the "ugly but fun" concept for games. The PC market has a bunch of graphically primitive indie titles to compare that consoles don't share. Very few of them have made a real impact though.

Edited, Jun 16th 2013 8:31am by Jophiel
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#279 Jun 16 2013 at 7:53 AM Rating: Good
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You can't just boil this whole equation down to sales though. That ignores the vast majority of the context central to business success.

EDIT: Added for clarity: You can't make a leap from "It sold poorly" to "The publisher's sales expectations are unrealistic and they shouldn't have budgets based on those." All we know is that they didn't meet their sales expectations in that specific scenario; we can't leap forward to the sales expectations themselves being inappropriate. Because if a few market variables changed, it's possible they could have exceeded those numbers. /EDIT

What was the market like when the game launched - were people more or less likely to be purchasing a $60 game than at other times? What was the competition like? How effectively marketed was the game? Did those marketing campaigns have high reaches?

Etc.

In February, we had Dead Space 3, Crysis 3. March had God of War, Stacraft's expansion, Bioshock Infinite (notable for launching the day after).

And then consider that it's an exclusive title, so you can only sell it to PS3 players. But I imagine DS3/C3/GoW/BI all present direct competition for Tomb Raider for a significant percentage of the population.

There are so many factors that it doesn't boil down solely to a perspective on development costs.

One thing I do believe we are seeing, though, is a sign that the market pricing isn't appropriate to the current market. $60 is a lot of money to drop on a hobby item, at a time where there's a lot of competition and little expendable income.

I do believe dropping the price by a significant margin, and recouping that by selling FAR more copies of the game, would be best in the long run for publishers. But I've said it before in this thread: that's a really, really hard sell for executives. It's a gamble for them, and they're more comfortable selling at $60 than taking the chance.

It doesn't help that the industry has been making this argument that their games are worth a $60 price tag. Dropping that now makes you feel like there's a lack of confidence in their own title.

I have absolutely no clue if that pricing is up to the publisher 100%, or if the console developer has a say, though.

Edited, Jun 16th 2013 9:56am by idiggory
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#280 Jun 16 2013 at 8:26 AM Rating: Decent
Jophiel wrote:
Laxedrane the Irrelevant wrote:
The problem is the games aren't budgeted right. There's a game on that list, 12th one, that's going to be TWENTY years old come this september. I think without even looking at actual statistic we can all agree that the amount of people that play video games has increased drastically since 1993. How is it then a twenty year old game can out perform modern ones in a larger market? I am not saying that if this game released today it would do nearly as well if it was sold as is. However that;s a staggeringly old game to be sitting in the top 15 for a market that's damn near to catching up to other major mediums.

I don't get why this is a problem. Myst was a wildly successful game. It presented a new experience for people graphically and with game play (non-combat 1st person exploration). It came out at a time where the potential audience may have been smaller but the game market itself was also much less crowded. You may as well complain that Gone With The Wind still tops ticket sales/inflation adj. box office records. That came out around 74 years ago.


I am not surprised by the movies you quote. What I am saying in a market that's exploded these past 5 years. I can't find an exact statistic for how many people played in the 90s..However the market is definately bigger, we have.. or had own networks. We have our own celebrities now. Congress been keeping a more watchful eye on the industry. Yet a game that came out in the relative infancy of the industry is stil kicking *** when 65% of the world population owns and are possible consumers of games now.
Source: http://www.onlineeducation.net/videogame

To me that's shocking. Maybe becuase I am not a PC gamer and don't know weather or not this is like a mario or zelda of the PC history. However this game in an industry that's becoming more and more widely appealing in the past 2 decades still kicking a lot of other games *** is just surprising to me.(Then Again I don't know how mario brothers manage to find what is it... 40 million people to sell itself to in the 80s is surprising to me too. Unless they count re-releases in those numbers.)

Jophiel wrote:
Quote:
Tomb raider had to sell at least I believe it was 8 million copies for it's publisher to consider it a "Success." 8 million copies. Not even the top selling pc games ~OF ALL TIME~ clear 3 million before the top 30 games. Yet tomb raider was expected to sell 8 million copies.

The original Tomb Raider sold over 5.5 million copies between PC and PSX. Tomb Raider II sold over 7.5 million copies on those same two platforms. I know everyone uses Tomb Raider (2013) as an example of how unrealistic publishers are about sales -- likely because not many people say how many copies they wanted to sell of a game -- but hoping for a big reboot of a very popular franchise to sell 8 million copies across three platforms doesn't seem terribly insane. It proved to be excessively optimistic but I don't think it was pulled from a fishbowl. Tomb Raider 2013 has sold over 3.4 million copies (I assume closer to 4+ since the article) which is a sizable jump over the franchise's usual fall-off per new title.

My reason for posting the PC list earlier was because of the "ugly but fun" concept for games. The PC market has a bunch of graphically primitive indie titles to compare that consoles don't share. Very few of them have made a real impact though.

Edited, Jun 16th 2013 8:31am by Jophiel


I understand the reason you posted the the list and agree that graphics are important in sales just like a famous actor is important to get sales for a movie. That's not always the case but if you shooting for big numbers that's what you gotta do. Although I think the most important thing is the aesthetic not the overall graphical quality of the game.

That's great the original tomb raiders did so well. But even across 4 consules. You have to be in the top 15 best selling games across the three major consules. And in the top 30 best selling pc games of all time to be able to meet that number.(If you expect 2 mil sales from each platform to make 8.) That's like shooting to make the sales of the movie "Titanic."

There's nothing wrong if you think you have gold to big or go home. However to standardize your budget for so many games around being in the top tier of game of a consule life. Well that's just plain stupid. Even Tomb raider was a gamble. You list how much the series sold in it's prime. However how did it's more recent titles fair? How popular is she now(or in this case before this last release) The relaunch sold about 3.4 millions copies so far(Most recent number I could find on wiki) half of what square expected, and half of what the original manage to sell.(Again who knows if re-releases count in those numbers.) Yet it was expected to surprass the original first round out after stagnating all these years.

If I was a business man in charge I personally would of relaunched strong and then shoot for the equal to make that level of sales once fans of the series could be assured they were getting a quality experience from a name brand they know again. Let's face it, Lara wasn't treated to kindly up until now. It had good and bad baggage coming along with that package. It's extremely presumptuous to shoot that high on the charts when the average game won't clear a million or two.

There's gambling and then there's going all in hoping that last card dealt will be the spade they need to make a straight flush. Behaving like you know how a hands going to be dealt and financing like it's a guarantee is moronic.
#281 Jun 16 2013 at 9:34 AM Rating: Good
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The thing to remember about games that have been out for a while is that they've had a lot of time to sell.

And in a worldwide market, that's big.

Think about console releases. We're only now moving into the period of "simultaneous" worldwide releases (though the XBone didn't get that memo). The PS2 was launched slowly, region by region, with plenty of areas where it sold well not getting it until far later. That's also a factor of economic opportunity. Even if the console is available, that doesn't mean it's really going to spread into a region right away. And until there's a base of consoles, you don't sell games.

Same thing with Myst. Until PCs capable of playing it spread, Myst wasn't going to sell. But because Myst would be current gen for wherever those PCs DID spread (and assuming language support), it WOULD sell.

But that's another thing. PC games work differently than console games, because consoles have clear generation gaps, where it's another matter entirely when we're discussing whether or not you can run a PC game, and when.
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#282 Jun 16 2013 at 9:45 AM Rating: Excellent
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idiggory, King of Bards wrote:
But I've said it before in this thread: that's a really, really hard sell for executives. It's a gamble for them, and they're more comfortable selling at $60 than taking the chance.

It doesn't help that the industry has been making this argument that their games are worth a $60 price tag.

Games have always been around the same price point though, adjusted for inflation. I went before and dug up old pricing for games from the early 90's and a "AAA" style title was retailing for around that point.
I once wrote:
Anyway, as long as we're back on this, MSRP pricing from some 1990 issues of Compute!

Champions of Krynn (SSI Gold Box) - $39.95
Altered Beast - $34.95
Shinobi - $23.95
Paperboy - $25.95
Blue Angels - $49.95
Beyond Dark Castle - $29.95
Battletech - $27.99
Gauntlet II - $29.95
Sentinel Words I - $34.95
Might & Magic II - $39.95
SimCity - $29.95

I stuck with titles I remembered and which were fairly popular titles. So a AAA "RPG" title was $40, most other stuff was around $30 and I don't know what the Blue Angels (some flight sim/combat game) people were smoking. I saw mail-order ads for these titles for cheaper but went with the prices listed in the game reviews. According to the inflation calculator, $30 in 1990 was roughly $50 and $40 is roughly $65.

So we have a market where the product has been around the same price point but various pressures (inflation, development costs, etc) are pushing costs to where perhaps the games should be $65 now or $70. But no one wants to move above the $60 ceiling. So publishers have to find new ways of adding to the total money you expend per game in pieces -- DLC, Real money markets, yearly editions that aren't actual game enhancements or whatever.
Quote:
Same thing with Myst. Until PCs capable of playing it spread, Myst wasn't going to sell. But because Myst would be current gen for wherever those PCs DID spread (and assuming language support), it WOULD sell.

That's true. Myst was popular for years. Few games fit into its niche and it was very accessible even for people who didn't play games. These days, the half life of a game on the shelf is much, much shorter. You have a few exceptions like Skyrim which stayed very popular in sales for a long time but even something lauded like Bioshock: Infinite was a come-and-go event before the next story-driven FPS took its place.

Edited, Jun 16th 2013 10:48am by Jophiel
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#283 Jun 16 2013 at 11:07 PM Rating: Good
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Myst was also just rereleased on 3DS... Though apparently the port is terribad.
#284 Jun 19 2013 at 2:44 PM Rating: Good
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Looks like Microsoft is backpedaling on the DRM.
#285 Jun 19 2013 at 2:44 PM Rating: Decent
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So much for Xbox One DRM...

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This could be the biggest backtrack in gaming history: Microsoft will reverse course on their DRM policies for Xbox One, dropping their Internet requirements and all restrictions on used games, according to the websites WhatHiFi and GiantBomb.

According to both reports, the announcement will be made today.

UPDATE: Looks like Microsoft is updating their Xbox One Q&A, but the new page isn't live yet. No word on which policies are changing. We're updating as we learn more.

Citing multiple sources, GiantBomb says Microsoft has decided to remove a laundry list of Xbox One restrictions that customers considered negative:

No more always online requirement
The console no longer has to check in every 24 hours
All game discs will work on Xbox One as they do on Xbox 360
Authentication is no longer necessary
An Internet connection is only required when initially setting up the console
All downloaded games will function the same when online or offline
No additional restrictions on trading games or loaning discs
Region locks have been dropped

http://kotaku.com/microsoft-is-removing-xbox-one-drm-514390310


Quote:
Microsoft is set to announce it will remove DRM restrictions on Xbox One games and the need for you to have the new Xbox "always online".

Sources tell whathifi.com that Microsoft is set to announce the changes later today, with games developers being informed first.

The Xbox One was announced last week at E3 alongside the new PS4, with Sony's new PlayStation drawing first blood thanks to the higher Xbox One price and apparent restrictions surrounding games and offline play.

Microsoft announced that users would need to connect the Xbox One to the internet once every 24 hours in order to keep playing.

DRM (digital rights management) would also seemingly restrict you from sharing Xbox One games with friends or indeed selling them on second-hand.

Sony was quick to capitalise, changing the PS4 launch to poke fun at the Xbox One's perceived restrictive nature and highlighting the fact that there would be no such issues aroud the PS4 (even if PS4 games publishers' can seemingly still choose to add DRM).

It seems Microsoft has listened and is set to change its mind on both DRM on Xbox One games and the always online requirement.

We've contacted Microsoft for comment.
http://www.whathifi.com/news/microsoft-to-back-track-on-xbox-one-games-drm-and-always-online


GiantBomb page down at present - http://www.giantbomb.com/articles/microsoft-to-pull-complete-reversal-on-xbox-one-dr/1100-4673/

Official Xbox page down - http://news.xbox.com/2013/05/qa

Edited, Jun 19th 2013 4:54pm by jtftaru
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#286 Jun 19 2013 at 2:51 PM Rating: Excellent
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Funny how they didn't listen until they started seeing the gap in the pre-order numbers.
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#287 Jun 19 2013 at 3:08 PM Rating: Excellent
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Now if they can provide an X1 without a kinect included for 399 they'd have a pretty good shot.
#288 Jun 19 2013 at 3:17 PM Rating: Good
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Wow I dont think I've EVER seen that much of a full out reversal, I mean even region locking, I still think they may have burned more bridges then it was worth but I'm just in awe of heel face turn they are doing.

Lets see if it works
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#289 Jun 19 2013 at 3:23 PM Rating: Excellent
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KTurner wrote:
Now if they can provide an X1 without a kinect included for 399 they'd have a pretty good shot.
I think they could even do it at $429 and have it be competitive. But yeah, I won't be getting one until there's a Kinect-less option.
#290 Jun 19 2013 at 3:23 PM Rating: Good
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#291 Jun 19 2013 at 3:27 PM Rating: Excellent
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Last week at E3, the excitement, creativity and future of our industry was on display for a global audience.

For us, the future comes in the form of Xbox One, a system designed to be the best place to play games this year and for many years to come. As is our heritage with Xbox, we designed a system that could take full advantage of advances in technology in order to deliver a breakthrough in game play and entertainment. We imagined a new set of benefits such as easier roaming, family sharing, and new ways to try and buy games. We believe in the benefits of a connected, digital future.

Since unveiling our plans for Xbox One, my team and I have heard directly from many of you, read your comments and listened to your feedback. I would like to take the opportunity today to thank you for your assistance in helping us to reshape the future of Xbox One.

You told us how much you loved the flexibility you have today with games delivered on disc. The ability to lend, share, and resell these games at your discretion is of incredible importance to you. Also important to you is the freedom to play offline, for any length of time, anywhere in the world.

So, today I am announcing the following changes to Xbox One and how you can play, share, lend, and resell your games exactly as you do today on Xbox 360. Here is what that means:

An internet connection will not be required to play offline Xbox One games – After a one-time system set-up with a new Xbox One, you can play any disc based game without ever connecting online again. There is no 24 hour connection requirement and you can take your Xbox One anywhere you want and play your games, just like on Xbox 360.

Trade-in, lend, resell, gift, and rent disc based games just like you do today – There will be no limitations to using and sharing games, it will work just as it does today on Xbox 360.

In addition to buying a disc from a retailer, you can also download games from Xbox Live on day of release. If you choose to download your games, you will be able to play them offline just like you do today. Xbox One games will be playable on any Xbox One console -- there will be no regional restrictions.

These changes will impact some of the scenarios we previously announced for Xbox One. The sharing of games will work as it does today, you will simply share the disc. Downloaded titles cannot be shared or resold. Also, similar to today, playing disc based games will require that the disc be in the tray.

We appreciate your passion, support and willingness to challenge the assumptions of digital licensing and connectivity. While we believe that the majority of people will play games online and access the cloud for both games and entertainment, we will give consumers the choice of both physical and digital content. We have listened and we have heard loud and clear from your feedback that you want the best of both worlds.

Thank you again for your candid feedback. Our team remains committed to listening, taking feedback and delivering a great product for you later this year.
http://news.xbox.com/2013/06/update
#292 Jun 19 2013 at 3:32 PM Rating: Excellent
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Quote:
Please preorder our system. We're Sorry really*.
http://news.xbox.com/2013/06/update



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#293 Jun 19 2013 at 3:34 PM Rating: Default
#294 Jun 19 2013 at 3:36 PM Rating: Good
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Well that was a 'no duh' move. If Microsoft had any brains they'd start firing the people who drove this decision in the first place.

There's one barrier to competing with Sony, now to just get rid of Kinect and lower the price and they might have a chance.
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#295 Jun 19 2013 at 3:37 PM Rating: Excellent
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KTurner wrote:
Screenshot

?
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#296 Jun 19 2013 at 3:42 PM Rating: Good
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BeanX the Irrelevant wrote:
KTurner wrote:
Screenshot

?

Smiley: lol yes thanks.
#297 Jun 19 2013 at 3:51 PM Rating: Good
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It's just shows that either their market research division is incredibly poor, or the executives in charge of these decisions (who probably aren't gamers) probably shouldn't even bother paying a market research division if they aren't even going to listen to him.

The fact that this product was ever even revealed with this features is appalling, the fact that the product was shown at E3 with these features is appalling, and the fact that it took this long for those decisions to be publicly reversed is appalling.

Also, because I saw this online and lol'd:

Xbox One-Eighty. Smiley: lol
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#298 Jun 19 2013 at 3:59 PM Rating: Good
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This comes as absolutely no surprise to anyone that has been paying attention for the last week. If they really want to look apologetic, they should publicly fire someone. It will of course not be someone that matters, since that would make sense, but someone's head should roll over how poorly they handled this whole situation.
#299 Jun 19 2013 at 4:10 PM Rating: Good
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Spoonless wrote:
[XBOXquote]
In addition to buying a disc from a retailer, you can also download games from Xbox Live on day of release. If you choose to download your games, you will be able to play them offline just like you do today.


Funny thing is you can't play live arcade games while not logged into live today... and you can't log in to live without an internet connection. I discovered that the sadface way while trying to play games in a hotel room with annoying internet (eventually used MAC address trick to get net to work, but was annoying and fiddly)

Edited, Jun 19th 2013 3:11pm by Olorinus
#300 Jun 19 2013 at 4:39 PM Rating: Decent
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They should change the name to Xbox 180.

But really good choice, dunno how much they are already bleeding from this, but better to back pedal now than post release.
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#301 Jun 19 2013 at 4:45 PM Rating: Good
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Quote:
That means that two features are being cut, at least for now, from Microsoft's Xbox One plans. Microsoft's concept of having your full game library travel with you is gone.

Microsoft's offer to let you share Xbox One games with up to nine other "family" members is gone, too.


Just worth noting. Source is the Kotaku article I'm too lazy to link.
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